Sunday, November 30
America had been glued to its TV sets for almost two days when they awoke to news of the St. Louis massacre. Phil Singh thought about the guys who had left his motel a few days ago and wondered if they knew anything about the world blowing up wherever they were camping. Then a thought crept into his mind. What if they had something to do with this? The only detail known about the man who blew himself up in the Starbucks in the strip mall on Camelback, on the north side of town, was that he was Middle Eastern in appearance. His curiosity got to him. He entered the room and saw the open box next to the TV. Inside was a camcorder and an envelope. Not sure what to do, he pulled out his cell phone and called the number for Rick that he had been given. If everything was on the up-and-up, he could explain that he had the package for tomorrow, but would be out much of the day. No problem. Phil called the number.
“Action News 4, Investigative Reporter’s Office, this is April,” answered the cheerful voice at the local NBC affiliate.
“Umm, I may have a wrong number. I own a motel here in town and a group of guests left a package for a family member. Is there a ‘Rick’ there?” Halfway through his question, Phil realized this was not a wrong number.
“Rick Sanchez is the Investigative Reporter for us.”
“Oh no.” Phil paused. “You need to come over and see this. We may want law enforcement too.”
“Hold on, what is going on?” asked a clearly confused April. “How does this deal with a family member?”
“Is Rick there?”
“He is out on assignment. What is going on?”
“A group of men left a videotape and a letter. One had a drivers’ license with the surname ‘Sanchez’. He claimed to be Rick’s cousin Mariel, but all four looked Middle Eastern and Mariel sounded Middle Eastern.”
“What’s your address? Rick will be there within the hour.”
Phil gave his address, hung up, walked back to his office, and called the FBI.
Rick’s newsvan arrived about three minutes before the FBI. Phil took Rick and his crew to the room and noticed the FBI van pull up as he opened the door. He pointed to the box and went out to greet the FBI. Rick Sanchez was annoyed to the see FBI here to mess up his news story. The FBI was annoyed to see Rick Sanchez messing up their crime scene. Both were annoyed at Phil for calling the other and nobody knew what they had.
Rick held the videocamera and said, “Let’s see if this guy is just my cousin asking for a place to stay.” He pulled up the only video and hit ‘play’. The video immediately played and they knew this was no cousin looking for a couch to crash on. This was a manifesto.
“By now you have seen the evil America has wrought around the world returns as justice unleashed on your people…” the video continued in this “streets running with blood” vein with vague statements regarding mass suffering and death, apparently relating to Friday’s attacks. Then it made an analogy to the weak body of America resembling the sick bodies in hospitals and morgues in every state in America. “We are the source of this suffering.“ This produced quizzical looks around the room and it seemed to be describing something entirely different from the suicide bombers, the stadium attacks, or this morning’s St Louis bombing. Then the video showed the members of the group exposing themselves to some pinkish vial of something. They claimed it was smallpox. Unconsciously, Rick set the camcorder on the TV so that he was not holding it for others to look over his shoulder. At the same time, everyone consciously took inventory of their surroundings, the surroundings of the our men in the video infected with smallpox. The video concluded with them putting this substance on the doorknob and then a scene in the mirror of the substance being placed on the camcorder. As if the assembled were not already paying attention, that certainly focused a few minds in the room.
Within two hours, the three FBI agents were in a quarantined location and on a conference call with the CDC and FBI Headquarters in Washington. The scope of the problem was beyond comprehension. The FBI in Phoenix thought it would be a call about an outbreak in Phoenix. The CDC explained that there were no less than 560 suspected smallpox cases in 33 states.
Nearly as many Americans died on Friday as died in the whole Korean War. Now, we were staring at something that could dwarf it. We were looking at something that could dwarf the Civil War, which killed 3% of every man, woman, and child in the United States. It was as if each wave was logarithmically larger than the last. Hundreds in the suicide bomber wave. Tens of thousands in the stadium attack wave at the same time. How many could die from a nationwide outbreak of smallpox? We did not know, but we were realistically staring down the barrel at millions. The panic started to spread on Sunday as rumors of smallpox started to emerge around the country. The rumor was first voiced first on NBC, then all the other networks. Before long, the government had to address that yes, in fact, there were cases of smallpox.
When the sun rose on Friday, things looked good. A new president was elected, the country was going in a new direction, and people were thinking about topics like climate change and national health insurance. By the time the sun set on Sunday, America was in free fall. Over 33,000 souls had been lost and untold thousands were infected and actively infecting others with a plague that could wipe out millions. The enemy (or enemies) had not been identified and it was not clear how to restore confidence among America’s shaken populace. People had been targeted where they live, where they shop, where they eat, where they seek entertainment, and where they travel. Many were far from home and either unsure how to return home or unwilling to take the risk of exposing themselves to violence or disease on the path home.
The Week of Monday, December 1, 2008
Cynics often quote, “it’s always darkest right before…it goes completely black.” In the next week, things went pitch black. The infections went up every day as people swamped the healthcare system. Many who were not previously infected came into contact with those who were infected in the waiting rooms. In a development that would be bad satire had it not happened, several hospitals had to close their doors within a week of the outbreak because of lawsuits related to these subsequent exposures. (Aside: all were reopened several days later when blanket immunity to lawsuits was granted to all medical institutions relating to unintentional spread and misdiagnosis of the epidemic)
Far worse and more broadly devastating, the economy simply stopped. People were afraid to shop, but more afraid to starve, so stores were emptied as people bought all the canned food and bottled water within a day. One challenge that many families faced was that their houses were packed full of relatives. Beyond turkey leftovers, they did not have nearly enough food to manage the needs of suddenly increased household sizes. Most gun shops sold their full stock of ammunition by noon Monday while millions found themselves cursing the 7-day wait for gun ownership. Nonetheless they paid in full for their ammo-less guns with the hope that the store would stay open for a week and riots would not engulf their homes and families for the next week. People loaded up on fuel as well, especially in the suburbs. In a nod to some of the humor of the times, guns, gas, and canned food became known collectively as the “bunker stash”. Within a few days, neighbors would greet each other (typically at a distance) asking, “how’s your bunker stash?” “Got enough ammo to hold off the 82nd Airborne, but food’s good for about three weeks. How about you?” In truth, people were aware of their stashes but did not always speak about them too openly. People also arranged neighborhood defenses (by phone and e-mail) in the event of the riots that many thought would come. Otherwise, the immediate effect was that nobody shopped – no trips to the mall or the coffee shop. Nobody went to movie theaters or had lunch at a restaurant. For that matter, not too many people went to work, so the non-food, non-gun, non-gas retail stores mostly did not open on Monday and stayed closed for an extended basis.
Fear of transmission of smallpox shut down the commercial airlines (by executive order) on Monday. All flights in the air were cleared to fly to its destination, but the last departure took off at 10:36am Eastern. To make matters worse, nobody wanted to travel, including the truck and bus drivers. Those stranded visiting family had no way to return home. More importantly, there was no way to restock supplies. Within a day, there was a consensus people did not want the trucks as they feared the drivers would bring disease, but all were aware that a few days without fuel, food, and water would create its own panic. It seemed like the only things that did work on Monday were the TV and the internet, but that did little to cheer anyone up. It was then that people saw the full scope of how fast things were running off the rails along with the certainty conferred with those fears being expressed on TV rather than the slow dispersion of fears through word of mouth rumors.
A couple smallish riots broke out in Miami, Detroit, and Los Angeles on Monday afternoon. Looting in the cities was not yet widespread, but it was not responded to immediately either. There was an odd incident in which a young man in his 20’s shot up the entrance of a fully occupied hotel (a Holiday Inn in suburban Minneapolis, likely hosting people visiting family), but he fled and it was not immediately known if it was part of the terror or someone who went crazy.
The President had appeared on TV the Friday of the initial attack, but things had changed and the country was clearly restive. On Tuesday evening, the President and President-elect jointly addressed the nation. They mandated that employees in essential industries return (or keep going) to work: utilities, trucking, certain retailers such as fuel, grocery and mass (Target, WalMart), food production, police, fire, medical, etc. They would be going to work with surgical masks and latex gloves, their pay would be doubled for the time of the emergency, and they would receive a payout from a fund (over and above any life insurance) if they contracted and succumbed to the disease. Those who did not show for work or report their remote status location would be jailed. Anti-hoarding rules were put into effect as well. The government also called out the National Guard and enforced a 9pm curfew for all cities and towns larger than 50,000. The address also spelled out in clear terms what lay ahead. The President stated, “The scale and scope of the smallpox epidemic will not be clear for at least a month. Until we bring this epidemic under control, commercial aviation and other forms of interstate mass transport will be suspended. We know that many families are separated – husband from wife and parents from children for what was supposed to be a few days. I urge you not to attempt to drive cross-country. You will subject yourself, your family, and those living between where you are and where you are going to the virus. You risk stranding yourself and hurting others.”
The President-elect continued, “There are simply not nearly enough antibiotics for the 300 million people in America not to mention the spillover we are seeing abroad. To be frank, we believe that we can save people, but we are not entirely sure what will work on this strain as we do not know its origin or if it has been developed to resist treatment. We will keep you updated and hope to lift these restrictions as soon as possible.”
“Initial evidence has indicated who the responsible parties are. As soon as we have proper levels of verification, we will respond appropriately. There is no question that the emergence of smallpox around our nation in the wake of the largest coordinated attack ever seen was wrought by a deliberate act, not a coincidence. Those who have brought death and destruction to our shores will face justice, sooner than later and on a scale to serve as a warning to others who would make mischief in America’s time of tribulation.”
To date there had been no attacks on American interests or allies abroad, but everyone who flew in from the United States since Wednesday had been quarantined in most countries. There were cases in 39 countries, but no outbreaks outside of Mexico and Canada and those two seemed to be limited.
The world had not stopped while America dealt with its challenges. Because of the internet age, there was no way to black out news from abroad. Still, many of the most pertinent details were not widely known, but leaders in other nations knew. China had moved troops and ships towards Taiwan. North Korea had moved troops closer to the South Korean line and had their troops at a higher state of alert. Venezuela had moved troops and munitions closer to the Colombian border. Pakistan and India saw higher states of alert. All of this had happened in the past two days, so it was reasonable to assume that these increased stresses were opportunistic reactions to the superpower’s problems. These were flashpoints that bore America’s continued attention, but they were not the flashpoints that drew the President’s or President-elect’s principal attentions. While many imagined that anti-American states rejoiced at America’s problems, most Americans were unaware of these military moves. To the extent that Americans thought of the world outside its borders, the focus was on 1) the touching “we’re with you” memorials all over the world (fewer than 9/11, but heartfelt nonetheless), 2) the Palestinians and Egyptians who danced in the streets and the killing of the local Dutch news crew filming the celebrations of Muslims in the streets of Rotterdam, and above all 3) who did this and will we nuke them?
Additional countries were at a high state of alert, canceled leaves, and moved troops: Iran, Syria, Russia, and Turkey. Iran and Syria were clearly not friends of the United States and had track records of facilitating the killing of Americans in Iraq. Their states of alert could be threats to the United States, their troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere in the region, or America’s close ally Israel. Russia frequently menaced neighbors and Georgia seemed to be in their crosshairs lately. Turkey was the real shocker, as this NATO ally had once considered the United States its closest (possibly only) significant ally. Turkey had been drifting away from the US and Europe in its foreign policy for many years, but things had truly accelerated with the AK party coming to power. They had a history of menacing Georgia and Greece, but it was likely that the Kurds in Iraq were the object of their concern.
What distinguished these four countries was that all went on high alert a week ago, one to three days before the attack.
All signs pointed to Hezbollah as the group that carried out the attack, not least the Phoenix martyrdom video. They did not identify themselves as such, but one of the men appeared to be (subsequently confirmed) the son of a high-ranking Hezbollah operative. Two men spoke Arabic with Lebanese accents, one of whom was identified as a Hezbollah sympathizer at least. The fourth man, who gave his message in English, was quickly identified as a Dutch man of Moroccan heritage. It was a break that all four gave their statements with their heads uncovered as the videos provided the evidence for the TSA and FBI to retrace their flights using surveillance photos. Additionally, in the months before the attack Israel had forwarded to the CIA information from their sources inside Hezbollah. Four different operatives had seen some increase in chatter and several references to “Turkey”. A couple operatives heard it and thought it was just the English word for the nation Turkey, but it was in the context of an operation, not a location. In another context, they heard it repeated with the Arabic word for the North American bird. It would be a strange coincidence for this chatter to emerge before an attack on America timed with an American holiday associated with that bird. Furthermore, Hezbollah is considered the only terror organization with the wherewithal (logistics, munitions, connections, quantity of operatives) to carry out such an operation.
A Hezbollah orchestrated attack would logically point to Iranian and Syrian involvement, so their states of alert in advance of the attack would support that conclusion. The alert status and possible foreknowledge of Russia and Turkey presented real problems. Russia has acted as an antagonist to the United States at least since Vladimir Putin was placed in office nearly nine years ago, but a response to or war with Russia would be massive, devastating, and involve WMDs (nuclear and yet another biological attack). Attacking a NATO ally like Turkey presents a whole different set of issues. However, simply wishing that these two countries not be connected to this attack is not a tenable strategy. If either supported this attack, then they have earned the response they would receive. Armies (and Presidents) do not get to choose their opponents.
Finally, preliminary findings (after only a few days) were showing that existing medicines were not having the desired effect on smallpox patients. Even before these findings, given that smallpox was used as weapon, most senior decision makers at Health and Human Services, the Department of Defense, and Homeland Security thought the virus would be in some way mutated or weaponized. Anyone who would pay to acquire a lethal virus to slaughter millions of Americans would probably look for a version of the virus that is both highly contagious and/or not easily cured. These were the facts that the President and President-elect were wrestling with as they addressed the nation.
“In conclusion,” the President-elect continued, “we will carefully study all options for addressing our response abroad and our needs at home. Understand, things will not go smoothly, but we are dedicated to saving as many souls as possible. No effort will be spared. We are bloodied and we are facing possibly the greatest peril in this great nation’s history, but we are united and we will get through this. Good night.”
The President and President-elect were sharing the responsibility as best possible. They did not like each other personally, but knew this was a historic moment and both would be damned by history if they did anything less than unite the nation and respond effectively. As a point of fact, the outgoing President had the final say on any decision until January 20, 2009.
Intense diplomatic efforts were underway to determine from the intelligence agencies of trustworthy nations why these four nations were on alert in advance. It was a broadly accepted foregone conclusion that Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria would be targeted. If Turkey and Russia really were involved, the “why” and the “how” needed to be established. The “why” would not mitigate things, but clarify what objective drew these nations together knowing full well that they could land in the crosshairs of the superpower.
Meanwhile, despite the calm reassurance of the Presidents, real concerns remained on the ground domestically. In a virtual cabinet meeting after the speech, the President, VP, and every member of the current cabinet conferenced in as well as the President-elect, the VP-elect, and a handful of soon-to-be-nominated cabinet members for the new administration. The Secretary of the Interior summed up the issues nicely: “Forget the self detonators for a minute, if this version of smallpox spreads as we believe it can in a manner resembling the Black Death, there will be no way to keep food production high, keep the trucks running, and keep the stores open if it is considered a death sentence for all those people to go to work. We’ve got entire cities built on the concept of interdependence. They cannot feed themselves and most cities are located hundreds of miles from the food production. Bluntly, this epidemic can shut down the food supply chain. That could starve millions of Americans who do avoid infection.”
Silence followed the Secretary’s assessment. He was right and they knew it. He spelled out not only that it was bad, not only that it would get worse, but that it could quickly get unimaginably worse in the wealthiest, most powerful nation the world had ever known. His was not simply a worst case scenario predicated on everything going wrong, but the likely path of events if the spread of this disease were not halted immediately. When the Secretary of Labor finally spoke, it was clear the message had sunk in. “Perhaps we assumed with better technology, our society had an advantage compared to those poor, illiterate, hygienically unaware people who endured the Black Death. After all, one third of Europe died. The thing is, during the Black Death, most people could grow their own food and could survive in isolation. Now 2% of our population grows the food and they depend on the others for industrial fertilizers and fuel. I’m really not sure technology will be enough to offset our inability to feed ourselves.”
Those assembled in the cabinet and the incoming team had come to Washington to address issues that were important to them: healthcare, economic policy, abortion rights, farm policy, the Federal deficit, national defense, and so forth. All were sitting with their families a few days ago, enjoying Thanksgiving dinner, and looking forward to the transition of power. Most were looking ahead to departing jobs that had drained them for years, spending time with their families, and for most, making much better money while working more reasonable hours in the private sector. The members of the new regime had dreams, goals, and a desire to get started making their mark on the nation and the world. None anticipated that those priorities would be replaced with the survival of the nation or trying to “limit” civilian deaths to the tens of millions instead of a very real risk of over 100 million. Unlike economic policy or tax reform or battle plans, there were no test cases or recent experiences to refer to. While the CDC had plans on containing localized outbreaks, there were no continent-wide species threatening epidemics since Medieval Europe. The 1919 Flu Pandemic was the best model to work with in modern history, but as a disease that killed millions primarily of the very old and the very young, it did not have the capacity to kill whole cities or shut down the society.
In the end, the decision was made to “go draconian”. History and modern commentators may damn them, but neither the President nor the President-elect wanted their stories to be “if only they had moved faster and more boldly, tens of millions would have lived”. Bhhil-.,m l,l They could never forgive themselves. The decision was made that only essential workers would go to work (not that many others were going). They would receive antibiotics and wear protective clothing. Non-essential workers and their families would sequester themselves in their homes and would shop one day a week and the one person who went to stores must not have any signs of sickness. If he did, food would be denied and delivered several days later (for a charge). Civilians were asked to minimize contact with one another. Roadblocks manned by police limited movement to trucks. In short, a curfew was imposed for two weeks. Phone lines were set up for the sick to call in, but those answering the phones were at home. It was sterile and unpleasant, but within two weeks, most smallpox cases had made themselves evident. With a few adjustments, the national self-quarantine was renewed for another week to Christmas. Those who were with their families chose to stay quarantined through the end of the year (this was recommended by the government). Many separated families took the shift from mandatory to optional quarantine to drive across the country in cars filled with enough food to avoid human contact for thousands of miles until they saw their loved ones again.
The disease was stopped. It killed whole families, but then would sometimes leave one family member unscathed. It turns out that those who had experience chickenpox or shingles did have a higher rate of immunity to the disease. The cold weather and the quarantine did much to stop its transmission, but the disease infected millions and killed approximately 20% of those it infected, so according to estimates 7 million were exposed and 1.5 million died. All fabric that came in contact with those exposed was burned: clothes, blankets, chair covers, every surface in every airport.
The dramatic action was resented at first, hailed when infection rates dropped, then panned by some as an overreaction when infection rates proved to be lower than the experts predicted. Nonetheless, in December 2008, the United States avoided the massive plague yet still lost more people than in all the wars in American History combined.
That brings us to the second item discussed in the cabinet meeting. What to do about those who brought this? Perhaps a little bloody mindedness from considering bad and worse responses to worst case scenarios spilled over into the war planning, but the usual consideration for civilian casualties and world opinion took a lower priority. The evidence emerged that the plan did not start with Hezbollah, but Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinijad. He brought up the opportunity to recreate the Caliphate, the Islamic State that had been based in Turkey until it was broken up by Ataturk nearly a century ago. Iran also brought this to Turkey as a way to unite Sunni and Shi’a and to recast Turkey as the center of Sunni Islam. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may posses the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, but in the past millennium Turkey was the seat of power in the House of Islam. Turkey agreed, primarily because they saw it as a way to unite the House of Islam and unite the two main sects. The plan for Iran, Syria, and Turkey was to hobble the United States to where they could no longer project power, destroy Israel together, and unite the Umma (the community of believers). Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Libya were invited to join but decided not to. They also decided that this was information that did not need to be passed on to the United States. Hezbollah was simply the delivery mechanism. The decision was taken to make to strike Iran and offer a choice to Syria and Turkey.
The first nuclear bomb to be used in anger since 1945 exploded early morning December 4 Tehran time just north of Tehran where much of the military and political command slept. Within four hours, the Iranian oil platform in the Gulf was taken and the entire Iranian navy was sunk. Many batteries of silkworm missiles at the Striats of Hormuz were damaged or destroyed. Air strikes had severely damaged the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Bushehr. Additionally, Iraqi insurgent and Hezbollah training facilities and bomb factories in Iran were taken out. Finally, using Israeli information, strikes from an aircraft carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean destroyed all the Hezbollah sites in Lebanon that could be identified. By noon, Iran’s and Hezbollah’s capacity to make war was severely undermined, although the US was well aware that Hezbollah cells in Europe and the Western Hemisphere remained a danger.
At noon on December 4, the heads of state in Turkey and Syria –well aware of what was unfolding in Iran - were informed that their fate would be similar if they did not abdicate power and surrender unconditionally to the United States within 48 hours. The message was also conveyed that because US forces were busy in Iran and Iraq, attacks on their nations would be unconventional as the attacks on the US had been unconventional. Bashar Assad, the Syrian dictator, surrendered within 24 hours and sought refuge in Libya. The Libyans were told in no uncertain terms that the same offer would be made to them if Assad was not surrendered within 24 hours. Assad never got out of his plane. President Erdogan of Turkey said that the claims were ridiculous and that America could not defeat Turkey. Before the 48 hours had passed, Turkey had another military coup and surrendered unconditionally less than 2 hours before Ankara and Istanbul were to become the 2nd and 3rd cities to be on the receiving end of a nuclear bomb since 1945.
The Iranians and Hezbollah did fight back, but Hezbollah’s US cells were unable to do anything because everyone was in their homes and the parking garage security (or at least surveillance) was increased in the wake of the St Louis attack. Their European and Latin American cells attacked US interests over the coming days, but not to much effect. Iran did a capable job defending its homeland on a few counts. Their new Russian anti-aircraft system was the most effective against US aircraft since the Korean War. Several scud missiles tipped with VX nerve gas hit US troops stationed in Qatar and Kuwait. Still, as long as this remained a conventional war where technology could dominate, the US neutralized 20 Iranians for every one US casualty. The Chinese anti-ship missiles in the Straits of Hormuz were resilient to attack and scored some successes against several US warships. One in particular changed the direction of the war and brought it to a quick conclusion. A destroyer was sunk and 320 sailors were lost. The Presidents and the Joint Chiefs agreed that America had neither the time nor the patience to get bogged down playing a polite war. Tehran was hit with 5 nuclear warheads. Tabriz, Qom, and two lesser known sites were also hit. 15 million Iranians were dead and their populace was broken. The Organization of Islamic States was outraged but the Americans were in no mood to let up. Six days into hostilities, the decision was taken that war would be antiseptic and lethal rather than targeted, measured, or on anything resembling equal terms from here on. With that, it ended.
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