The Dot Com Bubble Candidate

He came from nowhere. Four years ago, Barack Obama could have walked down any street in America without getting a second look.  Now he would be recognized on most streets on earth.  Two years ago he was a barely known, unproven candidate who generated excitement among those who appreciate the new.  He built momentum and caught fire before the primaries started. Many who jumped on board were not remotely sure of what he represented, but they saw him as a blank slate onto which they could project their hopes and dreams.  As excitement built, money flowed. Over the past year and a half, there has been a veritable bull market in donations to the Obama Express as people wanted to make sure to support and be a part of this burgeoning dream.  Details have been overlooked in the interest of the bigger picture. Here we have a post-racial candidate whose implicit appeal was racial - he is the first viable African American presidential candidate.  Most Americans long for the day that we will get beyond race, so there was a natural draw to find that first African American president.  Had they run, Colin Powell or Condi Rice might have seen this same wave of excitement.  In short, Obama is an African American candidate in high office who is not compromised by civil rights activist establishment of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.  Racial reconciliation and presenting a youthful, post-racial face to the world are rightly seen as good things.  The press has breathlessly and uncritically reported his emergence. But it is all happening so fast and bad signs are clear. The only publicly known people who have known Barack since before he was famous are an unrepentant terrorist (Williams Ayers), two racist preachers (Wright, Pfleger), a crook (Tony Rezko), and a wife prone to controversial statements when making political speeches (pull quotes include "Barack will make you work" and "Proud of my country for the first time in my adult life").  Barack himself speaks in soaring rhetoric when giving prepared speeches and aided by a tele-prompter, but descends into serial "uh's" and "um's" when asked questions. To put it mildly, his views on everything from tax policy to international relations are not fully formed.  To put it less mildly, he makes things up as he goes along, telling audiences from AIPAC to La Raza what they want to hear, and changes his views to whatever serves him in the moment (from Rev Wright to FISA). Lastly, there is a hubris that has been evident throughout. This goes deeper than the fake Presidential Seal/ Obama sunrise logo. For example, he has articulated no new plan for Iran, suggesting only "active diplomacy" which is what the EU3 have done for 5 years (offering large economic carrots and sanctions as the stick).  As Senator Obama chooses not to delve into the details, we are left to believe that this intractable opponent will submit willingly to his aura. In all seriousness, he has not articulated a strategy for projecting US power or detailed what he sees as the national interest (beyond "coming together"), as if those concepts are obsolete.  There is not much history of presidential candidates making overtly political tours abroad, but that is no reason that this first term Senator should not demand the most politically loaded symbol in Europe- the Brandenburg Gate - for an address. When rebuffed, he simply took the next highest profile location in the capital of Europe's largest, most powerful nation for a rally. If Senator McCain attempted such a stunt, it would rightfully be viewed as an arrogant American acting like he owns the place. 

This is all so familiar.  The internet existed before the bubble, but it was not widely recognized or discussed outside college campuses and a few government agencies. Then suddenly, there was a large cadre of early adapters as this snowballed from a niche technology to "the next big thing". Many who spoke of the wonders of the internet were not really sure what the opportunity was, but it was a blank slate full of potential onto which the future could be written.  As excitement built, money flowed.  The NASDAQ shot to new heights as people saw a chance to invest in the emerging future. Here was a gold rush - a step change in both living and wealth - and investors had a chance to be part of it. Had it been cold fusion or perfectly safe flying cars or teleportation it would have been the same. Scientific advancement and consumer technology are rightly seen as good things and the path to a better future. The press breathlessly and uncritically reported the rise of the NASDAQ. But it all happened so fast. Venture capital poured in faster than the new startups could manage it. The fundamentals of many of the dot com companies were overlooked - concepts like profit and cost control were ignored as we were entering a brave new era fueled by unrealistic projections.  When people asked about quaint concepts like "breaking even" or "cashflow", they were waved off with a condescending smirk. Those who did not buy in to this new wisdom were brushed off by the true believers as simply behind the curve.  Then reality paid a visit: as investors sobered up, the bubble burst. 

So where is this campaign going? Barack's campaign set expectations extremely high. A new kind of politician untainted by the horse-trading of grubby insiders offered Hope and Change to a populace seeking those very commodities. As Senator Obama has exposed himself as dealing with the same mundane issues and making the same political calculations as others, he has seen his star fade somewhat. His stock has been crashing for about four months.  Barack Obama essentially clinched the Democratic nomination before the revelations about Reverend Wright and his overtly political and racial church came to light.  Would he have won 11 straight primaries had they been run after these quotes came out?  The combination of proportionate delegate apportionment (rather than winner take all) and the partial disenfranchisement of Florida and Michigan voters mitigated Hillary's wins.  After the crash started, he lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas.  After it was clear he was the Democratic nominee, he still lost several Democratic primaries by 40 percentage points.  This is the definition of limping to the finish.   Switching analogies, this is comparable to an NFL team coming within one game of clinching in late November then going on a 5-game losing streak, securing the playoff spot on the last weekend of the season when the other team loses. Those teams rarely do well in the playoffs because they are in free fall.  The only reason we have not noticed this free fall is the starting point: this is a Democrat year. "Generic Democrat" beats "generic Republican" by 15 points according to several polls, but somehow the dream Democrat leads this geriatric Republican by a mere 3 points.  The crash will not be discussed, let alone understood until, Obama is actually losing, but by then it will be too late. 

The clincher will be the hubris. Americans do not vote for a candidate who acts like he is better than they are.  When a candidate goes to a San Francisco mansion and smugly looks down his nose at the guns'n'God folks in flyover country, he hurts himself.  When a candidate goes abroad and gives voice to negative foreign perceptions about America, he hurts himself. When a candidate chastises his fellow citizens for failing to speak foreign languages (especially when he does not speak one), he hurts himself.  When a candidate will not deign to be interviewed, he presents himself as either having too weak a grasp of the facts to manage that sort of give-and-take or being too self-interested to get "off-message".  Neither option offers Hope or Change.  A candidate who will meet the tyrants of the world without any preconditions but will not meet Fox News under any conditions hurts himself. The fact that he has so little in tangible accomplishments and speaks in platitudes only underscores the space between hope and reality.  When it all shatters in 100 days or so, half will wistfully look back thinking of what could have been while the other half will wonder what the fuss was all about.