The Turkey Plot- Part 3

Sunday, November 30

America had been glued to its TV sets for almost two days when they awoke to news of the St. Louis massacre.  Phil Singh thought about the guys who had left his motel a few days ago and wondered if they knew anything about the world blowing up wherever they were camping.  Then a thought crept into his mind.  What if they had something to do with this?  The only detail known about the man who blew himself up in the Starbucks in the strip mall on Camelback, on the north side of town, was that he was Middle Eastern in appearance.  His curiosity got to him.  He entered the room and saw the open box next to the TV.  Inside was a camcorder and an envelope.  Not sure what to do, he pulled out his cell phone and called the number for Rick that he had been given. If everything was on the up-and-up, he could explain that he had the package for tomorrow, but would be out much of the day. No problem.  Phil called the number.

“Action News 4, Investigative Reporter’s Office, this is April,” answered the cheerful voice at the local NBC affiliate.

“Umm, I may have a wrong number.  I own a motel here in town and a group of guests left a package for a family member.  Is there a ‘Rick’ there?” Halfway through his question, Phil realized this was not a wrong number.

“Rick Sanchez is the Investigative Reporter for us.”

“Oh no.” Phil paused. “You need to come over and see this.  We may want law enforcement too.”

“Hold on, what is going on?” asked a clearly confused April. “How does this deal with a family member?”

“Is Rick there?”

“He is out on assignment. What is going on?”

“A group of men left a videotape and a letter.  One had a drivers’ license with the surname ‘Sanchez’. He claimed to be Rick’s cousin Mariel, but all four looked Middle Eastern and Mariel spoke sounded Middle Eastern.”

“What’s your address?  Rick will be there within the hour.”

Phil gave his address, hung up, walked back to his office, and called the FBI.  

Rick’s newsvan arrived about three minutes before the FBI.  Phil took Rick and his crew to the room and noticed the FBI van pull up as he opened the door.  He pointed to the box and went out to greet the FBI.  Rick Sanchez was annoyed to the see FBI here to mess up his news story.  The FBI was annoyed to see Rick Sanchez messing up their crime scene.  Both were annoyed at Phil for calling the other and nobody knew what they had.

Rick held the videocamera and said, “Let’s see if this guy is just my cousin asking for a place to stay.”  He pulled up the only video and hit ‘play’.  The video immediately played and they knew this was no cousin looking for a couch to crash on.  This was a manifesto.

“By now you have seen the evil America has wrought around the world returns as justice unleashed on your people…” the video continued in this “streets running with blood” vein with vague statements regarding mass suffering and death, apparently relating to Friday’s attacks.  Then it made an analogy to the weak body of America resembling the sick bodies in hospitals and morgues in every state in America.  “We are the source of this suffering.“ This produced quizzical looks around the room and it seemed to be describing something entirely different from the suicide bombers, the stadium attacks, or this morning’s St Louis bombing.  Then the video showed the members of the group exposing themselves to some pinkish vial of something.  They claimed it was smallpox.  Unconsciously, Rick set the camcorder on the TV so that he was not holding it for others to look over his shoulder.  At the same time, everyone consciously took inventory of their surroundings, the surroundings of the our men in the video infected with smallpox.  The video concluded with them putting this substance on the doorknob and then a scene in the mirror of the substance being placed on the camcorder.  As if the assembled were not already paying attention, that certainly focused a few minds in the room.

Within two hours, the three FBI agents were in a quarantined location and on a conference call with the CDC and FBI Headquarters in Washington.  The scope of the problem was beyond comprehension.  The FBI in Phoenix thought it would be a call about an outbreak in Phoenix.  The CDC explained that there were no less than 560 suspected smallpox cases in 33 states.  

Nearly as many Americans died on Friday as died in the whole Korean War. Now, we were staring at something that could dwarf it.  We were looking at something that could dwarf the Civil War, which killed 3% of every man, woman, and child in the United States. It was as if each wave was logarithmically larger than the last.  Hundreds in the suicide bomber wave.  Tens of thousands in the stadium attack wave at the same time. How many could die from a nationwide outbreak of smallpox?  We did not know, but we were realistically staring down the barrel at millions.  The panic started to spread on Sunday as rumors of smallpox started to emerge around the country.  The rumor was first voiced first on NBC, then all the other networks.  Before long, the government had to address that yes, in fact, there were cases of smallpox.

When the sun rose on Friday, things looked good.  A new president was elected, the country was going in a new direction, and people were thinking about topics like climate change and national health insurance.  By the time the sun set on Sunday, America was in free fall.  Over 33,000 souls had been lost and untold thousands were infected and actively infecting others with a plague that could wipe out millions.  The enemy (or enemies) had not been identified and it was not clear how to restore confidence among America’s shaken populace. People had been targeted where they live, where they shop, where they eat, where they seek entertainment, and where they travel.   Many were far from home and either unsure how to return home or unwilling to take the risk of exposing themselves to violence or disease on the path home.

The Week of Monday, December 1, 2008

Cynics often quote, “it’s always darkest right before…it goes completely black.”  In the next week, things went pitch black.  The infections went up every day as people swamped the healthcare system.  Many who were not previously infected came into contact with those who were infected in the waiting rooms.  In a development that would be bad satire had it not happened, several hospitals had to close their doors within a week of the outbreak because of lawsuits related to these subsequent exposures.   (Aside: all were reopened several days later when blanket immunity to lawsuits was granted to all medical institutions relating to unintentional spread and misdiagnosis of the epidemic)

Far worse and more broadly devastating, the economy simply stopped.  People were afraid to shop, but more afraid to starve, so stores were emptied as people bought all the canned food and bottled water within a day.  One challenge that many families faced was that their houses were packed full of relatives.  Beyond turkey leftovers, they did not have nearly enough food to manage the needs of suddenly increased household sizes.  Most gun shops sold their full stock of ammunition by noon Monday while millions found themselves cursing the 7-day wait for gun ownership. Nonetheless they paid in full for their ammo-less guns with the hope that the store would stay open for a week and riots would not engulf their homes and families for the next week.  People loaded up on fuel as well, especially in the suburbs.  In a nod to some of the humor of the times, guns, gas, and canned food became known collectively as the “bunker stash”.   Within a few days, neighbors would greet each other (typically at a distance) asking, “how’s your bunker stash?” “Got enough ammo to hold off the 82^nd Airborne, but food’s good for about three weeks.  How about you?” In truth, people were aware of their stashes but did not always speak about them too openly.  People also arranged neighborhood defenses (by phone and e-mail) in the event of the riots that many thought would come.  Otherwise, the immediate effect was that nobody shopped – no trips to the mall or the coffee shop.  Nobody went to movie theaters or had lunch at a restaurant.  For that matter, not too many people went to work, so the non-food, non-gun, non-gas retail stores mostly did not open on Monday and stayed closed for an extended basis. 

Fear of transmission of smallpox shut down the commercial airlines (by executive order) on Monday.  All flights in the air were cleared to fly to its destination, but the last departure took off at 10:36am Eastern.  To make matters worse, nobody wanted to travel, including the truck and bus drivers.  Those stranded visiting family had no way to return home.  More importantly, there was no way to restock supplies.  Within a day, there was a consensus people did not want the trucks as they feared the drivers would bring disease, but all were aware that a few days without fuel, food, and water would create its own panic.  It seemed like the only things that did work on Monday were the TV and the internet, but that did little to cheer anyone up.  It that meant was that people saw the full scope of how fast things were running off the rails along with the certainty conferred with those fears being expressed on TV rather than the slow dispersion of fears through word of mouth rumors.

A couple smallish riots broke out in Miami, Detroit, and Los Angeles on Monday afternoon.  Looting in the cities was not yet widespread, but it was not responded to immediately either.  There was an odd incident in which a young man in his 20’s shot up the entrance of a fully occupied hotel (a Holiday Inn in suburban Minneapolis, likely hosting people visiting family), but he fled and it was not immediately known if it was part of the terror or someone who went crazy.

The President had appeared on TV the Friday of the initial attack, but things had changed and the country was clearly restive.  On Tuesday evening, the President and President-elect jointly addressed the nation.  They mandated that employees in essential industries return (or keep going) to work: utilities, trucking, certain retailers such as fuel, grocery and mass (Target, WalMart), food production, police, fire, medical, etc.  They would be going to work with surgical masks and latex gloves, their pay would be doubled for the time of the emergency, and they would receive a payout from a fund (over and above any life insurance) if they contracted and succumbed to the disease.  Those who did not show for work or report their remote status location would be jailed.  Anti-hoarding rules were put into effect as well.  The government also called out the National Guard and enforced a 9pm curfew for all cities and towns larger than 50,000.  The address also spelled out in clear terms what lay ahead.  The President stated, “The scale and scope of the smallpox epidemic will not be clear for at least a month.  Until we bring this epidemic under control, commercial aviation and other forms of interstate mass transport will be suspended.  We know that many families are separated – husband from wife and parents from children for what was supposed to be a few days.  I urge you not to attempt to drive cross-country.  You will subject yourself, your family, and those living between where you are and where you are going to the virus.  You risk stranding yourself and hurting others.” 

The President-elect continued, “There are simply not nearly enough antibiotics for the 300 million people in America not to mention the spillover we are seeing abroad.  To be frank, we believe that we can save people, but we are not entirely sure what will work on this strain as we do not know its origin or if it has been developed to resist treatment.  We will keep you updated and hope to lift these restrictions as soon as possible.”

“Initial evidence has indicated who the responsible parties are.  As soon as we have proper levels of verification, we will respond appropriately.  There is no question that the emergence of smallpox around our nation in the wake of the largest coordinated attack ever seen was wrought by a deliberate act, not a coincidence.  Those who have brought death and destruction to our shores will face justice, sooner than later and on a scale to serve as a warning to others who would make mischief in America’s time of tribulation.”

To date there had been no attacks on American interests or allies abroad, but everyone who flew in from the United States since Wednesday had been quarantined in most countries.  There were cases in 39 countries, but no outbreaks outside of Mexico and Canada and those two seemed to be limited.

The world had not stopped while America dealt with its challenges.  Because of the internet age, there was no way to black out news from abroad.  Still, many of the most pertinent details were not widely known, but leaders in other nations knew.  China had moved troops and ships towards Taiwan.  North Korea had moved troops closer to the South Korean line and had their troops at a higher state of alert.  Venezuela had moved troops and munitions closer to the Colombian border. Pakistan and India saw higher states of alert. All of this had happened in the past two days, so it was reasonable to assume that these increased stresses were opportunistic reactions to the superpower’s problems.  These were flashpoints that bore America’s continued attention, but they were not the flashpoints that drew the President’s or President-elect’s principal attentions.   While many imagined that anti-American states rejoiced at America’s problems, most Americans were unaware of these military moves.  To the extent that Americans thought of the world outside its borders, the focus was on 1) the touching “we’re with you” memorials all over the world (fewer than 9/11, but heartfelt nonetheless), 2) the Palestinians and Egyptians who danced in the streets and the killing of the local Dutch news crew filming the celebrations of Muslims in the streets of Rotterdam, and above all 3) who did this and will we nuke them? 

Additional countries were at a high state of alert, canceled leaves, and moved troops: Iran, Syria, Russia, and Turkey.  Iran and Syria were clearly not friends of the United States and had track records of facilitating the killing of Americans in Iraq.  Their states of alert could be threats to the United States, their troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, or elsewhere in the region, or America’s close ally Israel.  Russia frequently menaced neighbors and Georgia seemed to be in their crosshairs lately. Turkey was the real shocker, as this NATO ally had once considered the United States its closest (possibly only) significant ally. Turkey had been drifting away from the US and Europe in its foreign policy for many years, but things had truly accelerated with the AK party coming to power.  They had a history of menacing Georgia and Greece, but it was likely that the Kurds in Iraq were the object of their concern.

What distinguished these four countries was that all went on high alert a week ago, one to three days before the attack.

All signs pointed to Hezbollah as the group that carried out the attack, not least the Phoenix martyrdom video.  They did not identify themselves as such, but one of the men appeared to be (subsequently confirmed) the son of a high-ranking Hezbollah operative. Two men spoke Arabic with Lebanese accents, one of whom was identified as a Hezbollah sympathizer at least.  The fourth man, who gave his message in English, was quickly identified as a Dutch man of Moroccan heritage.  It was a break that all four gave their statements with their heads uncovered as the videos provided the evidence for the TSA and FBI to retrace their flights using surveillance photos. Additionally, in the months before the attack Israel had forwarded to the CIA information from their sources inside Hezbollah.  Four different operatives had seen some increase in chatter and several references to “Turkey”.  A couple operatives heard it and thought it was just the English word for the nation Turkey, but it was in the context of an operation, not a location.  In another context, they heard it repeated with the Arabic word for the North American bird.  It would be a strange coincidence for this chatter to emerge before an attack on America timed with an American holiday associated with that bird.  Furthermore, Hezbollah is considered the only terror organization with the wherewithal (logistics, munitions, connections, quantity of operatives) to carry out such an operation.  

A Hezbollah orchestrated attack would logically point to Iranian and Syrian involvement, so their states of alert in advance of the attack would support that conclusion.  The alert status and possible foreknowledge of Russia and Turkey presented real problems.  Russia has acted as an antagonist to the United States at least since Vladimir Putin was placed in office nearly nine years ago, but a response to or war with Russia would be massive, devastating, and involve WMDs (nuclear and yet another biological attack).  Attacking a NATO ally like Turkey presents a whole different set of issues. However, simply wishing that these two countries not be connected to this attack is not a tenable strategy.  If either supported this attack, then they have earned the response they would receive.  Armies (and Presidents) do not get to choose their opponents. 

Finally, preliminary findings (after only a few days) were showing that existing medicines were not having the desired effect on smallpox patients.  Even before these findings, given that smallpox was used as weapon, most senior decision makers at Health and Human Services, the Department of Defense, and Homeland Security thought the virus would be in some way mutated or weaponized.  Anyone who would pay to acquire a lethal virus to slaughter millions of Americans would probably look for a version of the virus that is both highly contagious and/or not easily cured. These were the facts that the President and President-elect were wrestling with as they addressed the nation.

 “In conclusion,” the President-elect continued, “we will carefully study all options for addressing our response abroad and our needs at home.  Understand, things will not go smoothly, but we are dedicated to saving as many souls as possible.  No effort will be spared.  We are bloodied and we are facing possibly the greatest peril in this great nation’s history, but we are united and we will get through this.  Good night.”

The President and President-elect were sharing the responsibility as best possible.  They did not like each other personally, but knew this was a historic moment and both would be damned by history if they did anything less than unite the nation and respond effectively.  As a point of fact, the outgoing President had the final say on any decision until January 20, 2009.

Intense diplomatic efforts were underway to determine from the intelligence agencies of trustworthy nations why these four nations were on alert in advance.  It was a broadly accepted foregone conclusion that Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria would be targeted.  If Turkey and Russia really were involved, the “why” and the “how” needed to be established.  The “why” would not mitigate things, but clarify what objective drew these nations together knowing full well that they could land in the crosshairs of the superpower.

Meanwhile, despite the calm reassurance of the Presidents, real concerns remained on the ground domestically.  In a virtual cabinet meeting after the speech, the President, VP, and every member of the current cabinet conferenced in as well as the President-elect, the VP-elect, and a handful of soon-to-be-nominated cabinet members for the new administration.  The Secretary of the Interior summed up the issues nicely: “Forget the self detonators for a minute, if this version of smallpox spreads as we believe it can in a manner resembling the Black Death, there will be no way to keep food production high, keep the trucks running, and keep the stores open if it is considered a death sentence for all those people to go to work. We’ve got entire cities built on the concept of interdependence.  They cannot feed themselves and most cities are located hundreds of miles from the food production. Bluntly, this epidemic can shut down the food supply chain.  That could starve millions of Americans who do avoid infection.” 

Silence followed the Secretary’s assessment.  He was right and they knew it.  He spelled out not only that it was bad, not only that it would get worse, but that it could quickly get unimaginably worse in the wealthiest, most powerful nation the world had ever known.  His was not simply a worst case scenario predicated on everything going wrong, but the likely path of events if the spread of this disease were not halted immediately.  When the Secretary of Labor finally spoke, it was clear the message had sunk in.  “Perhaps we assumed with better technology, our society had an advantage compared to those poor, illiterate, hygienically unaware people who endured the Black Death.  After all, one third of Europe died.  The thing is, during the Black Death, most people could grow their own food and could survive in isolation.  Now 2% of our population grows the food and they depend on the others for industrial fertilizers and fuel.  I’m really not sure technology will be enough to offset our inability to feed ourselves.”

Those assembled in the cabinet and the incoming team had come to Washington to address issues that were important to them: healthcare, economic policy, abortion rights, farm policy, the Federal deficit, national defense, and so forth.  All were sitting with their families a few days ago, enjoying Thanksgiving dinner, and looking forward to the transition of power.  Most were looking ahead to departing jobs that had drained them for years, spending time with their families, and for most, making much better money while working more reasonable hours in the private sector. The members of the new regime had dreams, goals, and a desire to get started making their mark on the nation and the world.  None anticipated that those priorities would be replaced with the survival of the nation or trying to “limit” civilian deaths to the tens of millions instead of a very real risk of over 100 million.  Unlike economic policy or tax reform or battle plans, there were no test cases or recent experiences to refer to.  While the CDC had plans on containing localized outbreaks, there were no continent-wide species threatening epidemics since Medieval Europe.  The 1919 Flu Pandemic was the best model to work with in modern history, but as a disease that killed millions primarily of the very old and the very young, it did not have the capacity to kill whole cities or shut down the society.

In the end, the decision was made to “go draconian”.  History and modern commentators may damn them, but neither the President nor the President-elect wanted their stories to be “if only they had moved faster and more boldly, tens of millions would have lived”.    Bhhil-.,m l,l   They could never forgive themselves.  The decision was made that only essential workers would go to work (not that many others were going).  They would receive antibiotics and wear protective clothing.  Non-essential workers and their families would sequester themselves in their homes and would shop one day a week and the one person who went to stores must not have any signs of sickness.  If he did, food would be denied and delivered several days later (for a charge).  Civilians were asked to minimize contact with one another.  Roadblocks manned by police limited movement to trucks.  In short, a curfew was imposed for two weeks.  Phone lines were set up for the sick to call in, but those answering the phones were at home.   It was sterile and unpleasant, but within two weeks, most smallpox cases had made themselves evident. With a few adjustments, the national self-quarantine was renewed for another week to Christmas.  Those who were with their families chose to stay quarantined through the end of the year (this was recommended by the government).  Many separated families took the shift from mandatory to optional quarantine to drive across the country in cars filled with enough food to avoid human contact for thousands of miles until they saw their loved ones again.

The disease was stopped.  It killed whole families, but then would sometimes leave one family member unscathed.  It turns out that those who had experience chickenpox or shingles did have a higher rate of immunity to the disease.  The cold weather and the quarantine did much to stop its transmission, but the disease infected millions and killed approximately 20% of those it infected, so according to estimates 7 million were exposed and 1.5 million died.   All fabric that came in contact with those exposed was burned: clothes, blankets, chair covers, every surface in every airport.

The dramatic action was resented at first, hailed when infection rates dropped, then panned by some as an overreaction when infection rates proved to be lower than the experts predicted.  Nonetheless, in December 2008, the United States avoided the massive plague yet still lost more people than in all the wars in American History combined.

That brings us to the second item discussed in the cabinet meeting.  What to do about those who brought this?  Perhaps a little bloody mindedness from considering bad and worse responses to worst case scenarios spilled over into the war planning, but the usual consideration for civilian casualties and world opinion took a lower priority.  The evidence emerged that the plan did not start with Hezbollah, but Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinijad. He brought up the opportunity to recreate the Caliphate, the Islamic State that had been based in Turkey until it was broken up by Ataturk nearly a century ago. Iran also brought this to Turkey as a way to unite Sunni and Shi’a and to recast Turkey as the center of Sunni Islam.  The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may posses the holy sites of Mecca and Medina, but in the past millennium Turkey was the seat of power in the House of Islam.  Turkey agreed, primarily because they saw it as a way to unite the House of Islam and unite the two main sects. The plan for Iran, Syria, and Turkey was to hobble the United States to where they could no longer project power, destroy Israel together, and unite the Umma (the community of believers).  Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Libya were invited to join but decided not to.  They also decided that this was information that did not need to be passed on to the United States. Hezbollah was simply the delivery mechanism. The decision was taken to make to strike Iran and offer a choice to Syria and Turkey. 

The first nuclear bomb to be used in anger since 1945 exploded early morning December 4 Tehran time just north of Tehran where much of the military and political command slept.  Within four hours, the Iranian oil platform in the Gulf was taken and the entire Iranian navy was sunk.  Many batteries of silkworm missiles at the Striats of Hormuz were damaged or destroyed.  Air strikes had severely damaged the nuclear facilities at Natanz and Bushehr.  Additionally, Iraqi insurgent and Hezbollah training facilities and bomb factories in Iran were taken out.  Finally, using Israeli information, strikes from an aircraft carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean destroyed all the Hezbollah sites in Lebanon that could be identified. By noon, Iran’s and Hezbollah’s capacity to make war was severely undermined, although the US was well aware that Hezbollah cells in Europe and the Western Hemisphere remained a danger.  

At noon on December 4, the heads of state in Turkey and Syria –well aware of what was unfolding in Iran - were informed that their fate would be similar if they did not abdicate power and surrender unconditionally to the United States within 48 hours.  The message was also conveyed that because US forces were busy in Iran and Iraq, attacks on their nations would be unconventional as the attacks on the US had been unconventional.  Bashar Assad, the Syrian dictator, surrendered within 24 hours and sought refuge in Libya.  The Libyans were told in no uncertain terms that the same offer would be made to them in Assad was not surrendered within 24 hours.  Assad never got out of his plane.  President Erdogan of Turkey said that the claims were ridiculous and that America could not defeat Turkey. Before the 48 hours had passed, Turkey had another military coup and surrendered unconditionally less than 2 hours before Ankara and Istanbul were to become the 2^nd and 3^rd cities to be on the receiving end of a nuclear bomb since 1945.

The Iranians and Hezbollah did fight back, but Hezbollah’s US cells were unable to do anything because everyone was in their homes and the parking garage security (or at least surveillance) was increased in the wake of the St Louis attack. Their European and Latin American cells attacked US interests over the coming days, but not to much effect. Iran did a capable job defending its homeland on a few counts.  Their new Russian anti-aircraft system was the most effective against US aircraft since the Korean War.  Several scud missiles tipped with VX nerve gas hit US troops stationed in Qatar and Kuwait.  Still, as long as this remained a conventional war where technology could dominate, the US neutralized 20 Iranians for every one US casualty.  The Chinese anti-ship missiles in the Straits of Hormuz were resilient to attack and scored some successes against several US warships. One in particular changed the direction of the war and brought it to a quick conclusion.  A destroyer was sunk and 320 sailors were lost.  The Presidents and the Joint Chiefs agreed that America had neither the time nor the patience to get bogged down played polite.  Tehran was hit with 5 nuclear warheads. Tabriz, Qom, and two lesser known sites were also hit. 15 million Iranians were dead and their populace was broken. The Organization of Islamic States was outraged but the Americans were in no mood to let up.  Six days into hostilities, the decision was taken that war would be antiseptic and lethal rather than targeted, measured, or on anything resembling equal terms from here on. 

The Dot Com Bubble Candidate

He came from nowhere. Four years ago, Barack Obama could have walked down any street in America without getting a second look.  Now he would be recognized on most streets on earth.  Two years ago he was a barely known, unproven candidate who generated excitement among those who appreciate the new.  He built momentum and caught fire before the primaries started. Many who jumped on board were not remotely sure of what he represented, but they saw him as a blank slate onto which they could project their hopes and dreams.  As excitement built, money flowed. Over the past year and a half, there has been a veritable bull market in donations to the Obama Express as people wanted to make sure to support and be a part of this burgeoning dream.  Details have been overlooked in the interest of the bigger picture. Here we have a post-racial candidate whose implicit appeal was racial - he is the first viable African American presidential candidate.  Most Americans long for the day that we will get beyond race, so there was a natural draw to find that first African American president.  Had they run, Colin Powell or Condi Rice might have seen this same wave of excitement.  In short, Obama is an African American candidate in high office who is not compromised by civil rights activist establishment of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.  Racial reconciliation and presenting a youthful, post-racial face to the world are rightly seen as good things.  The press has breathlessly and uncritically reported his emergence. But it is all happening so fast and bad signs are clear. The only publicly known people who have known Barack since before he was famous are an unrepentant terrorist (Williams Ayers), two racist preachers (Wright, Pfleger), a crook (Tony Rezko), and a wife prone to controversial statements when making political speeches (pull quotes include "Barack will make you work" and "Proud of my country for the first time in my adult life").  Barack himself speaks in soaring rhetoric when giving prepared speeches and aided by a tele-prompter, but descends into serial "uh's" and "um's" when asked questions. To put it mildly, his views on everything from tax policy to international relations are not fully formed.  To put it less mildly, he makes things up as he goes along, telling audiences from AIPAC to La Raza what they want to hear, and changes his views to whatever serves him in the moment (from Rev Wright to FISA). Lastly, there is a hubris that has been evident throughout. This goes deeper than the fake Presidential Seal/ Obama sunrise logo. For example, he has articulated no new plan for Iran, suggesting only "active diplomacy" which is what the EU3 have done for 5 years (offering large economic carrots and sanctions as the stick).  As Senator Obama chooses not to delve into the details, we are left to believe that this intractable opponent will submit willingly to his aura. In all seriousness, he has not articulated a strategy for projecting US power or detailed what he sees as the national interest (beyond "coming together"), as if those concepts are obsolete.  There is not much history of presidential candidates making overtly political tours abroad, but that is no reason that this first term Senator should not demand the most politically loaded symbol in Europe- the Brandenburg Gate - for an address. When rebuffed, he simply took the next highest profile location in the capital of Europe's largest, most powerful nation for a rally. If Senator McCain attempted such a stunt, it would rightfully be viewed as an arrogant American acting like he owns the place. 

This is all so familiar.  The internet existed before the bubble, but it was not widely recognized or discussed outside college campuses and a few government agencies. Then suddenly, there was a large cadre of early adapters as this snowballed from a niche technology to "the next big thing". Many who spoke of the wonders of the internet were not really sure what the opportunity was, but it was a blank slate full of potential onto which the future could be written.  As excitement built, money flowed.  The NASDAQ shot to new heights as people saw a chance to invest in the emerging future. Here was a gold rush - a step change in both living and wealth - and investors had a chance to be part of it. Had it been cold fusion or perfectly safe flying cars or teleportation it would have been the same. Scientific advancement and consumer technology are rightly seen as good things and the path to a better future. The press breathlessly and uncritically reported the rise of the NASDAQ. But it all happened so fast. Venture capital poured in faster than the new startups could manage it. The fundamentals of many of the dot com companies were overlooked - concepts like profit and cost control were ignored as we were entering a brave new era fueled by unrealistic projections.  When people asked about quaint concepts like "breaking even" or "cashflow", they were waved off with a condescending smirk. Those who did not buy in to this new wisdom were brushed off by the true believers as simply behind the curve.  Then reality paid a visit: as investors sobered up, the bubble burst. 

So where is this campaign going? Barack's campaign set expectations extremely high. A new kind of politician untainted by the horse-trading of grubby insiders offered Hope and Change to a populace seeking those very commodities. As Senator Obama has exposed himself as dealing with the same mundane issues and making the same political calculations as others, he has seen his star fade somewhat. His stock has been crashing for about four months.  Barack Obama essentially clinched the Democratic nomination before the revelations about Reverend Wright and his overtly political and racial church came to light.  Would he have won 11 straight primaries had they been run after these quotes came out?  The combination of proportionate delegate apportionment (rather than winner take all) and the partial disenfranchisement of Florida and Michigan voters mitigated Hillary's wins.  After the crash started, he lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas.  After it was clear he was the Democratic nominee, he still lost several Democratic primaries by 40 percentage points.  This is the definition of limping to the finish.   Switching analogies, this is comparable to an NFL team coming within one game of clinching in late November then going on a 5-game losing streak, securing the playoff spot on the last weekend of the season when the other team loses. Those teams rarely do well in the playoffs because they are in free fall.  The only reason we have not noticed this free fall is the starting point: this is a Democrat year. "Generic Democrat" beats "generic Republican" by 15 points according to several polls, but somehow the dream Democrat leads this geriatric Republican by a mere 3 points.  The crash will not be discussed, let alone understood until, Obama is actually losing, but by then it will be too late. 

The clincher will be the hubris. Americans do not vote for a candidate who acts like he is better than they are.  When a candidate goes to a San Francisco mansion and smugly looks down his nose at the guns'n'God folks in flyover country, he hurts himself.  When a candidate goes abroad and gives voice to negative foreign perceptions about America, he hurts himself. When a candidate chastises his fellow citizens for failing to speak foreign languages (especially when he does not speak one), he hurts himself.  When a candidate will not deign to be interviewed, he presents himself as either having too weak a grasp of the facts to manage that sort of give-and-take or being too self-interested to get "off-message".  Neither option offers Hope or Change.  A candidate who will meet the tyrants of the world without any preconditions but will not meet Fox News under any conditions hurts himself. The fact that he has so little in tangible accomplishments and speaks in platitudes only underscores the space between hope and reality.  When it all shatters in 100 days or so, half will wistfully look back thinking of what could have been while the other half will wonder what the fuss was all about. 

The Turkey Plot - Chapter 2

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

“Inshallah, we shall meet our contact by nightfall,” said the leader of the group, known only as Ali the Egyptian.  They had crossed from Mexico into Arizona west of Nogales the night before and were going across some rather cold, windy desert mountains to a safe house off a remote highway.  The plan was set and the four of them knew where they were going. They also had in their possession the Sword of Allah.  Only Ali the Egyptian knew what it was, but they knew that their reward would come very soon in the next life.

The team had been brought into the United States by a coyote connected with the MS-13 gangs prominent from Central America to the US border states. Much of their weapons smuggling logistics had been accomplished by or (with sensitive cargo) coordinated with this gang. Naturally MS-13 had reaped financial reward, but understood the limits of the relationship. They understood that they would be given no advance information on any operations and that they could be exposed to danger inherent with this line of business, but were paid a premium and accepted this tradeoff.   Javier Cocias had dealt with Hezbollah before, but not with Ali the Egyptian or any of his team.  He had no idea what this team was transporting.  He had met them two days before, set them up with wardrobe and ensured that they shaved to help the team “look” Mexican.  None of them spoke Spanish but Yusef, a Dutch Muslim of Moroccan heritage from the Netherlands, spoke flawless English. Yusef translated all of Javier’s instructions into Arabic for the team.  Ali spoke perfect English, but feigned ignorance because he did not want to debase himself to interact with this disgusting kuffer (unbeliever).  The other two team members were fairly quiet, spoke very basic English, and were clearly subordinate in this group.  Javier did not learn anyone’s identity, but the two quiet ones were Mochtar Hasan of Tyre, Lebanon and Mohammad al Jaduri of Tripoli, Lebanon. Loyal, dedicated, and violent, they had been chosen because there was no concern that they would falter and it was believed that their looks would not arouse suspicion.

Ironically, Ali the Egyptian had never been to Egypt.  His father, who was Egyptian, was a long time Hezbollah operative and was not welcome in Egypt.  Specifically, he had played a central role in Hezbollah’s greatest operation outside the Middle East – the Buenos Aires Jewish Community Center bombing in 1994.  At that time, he was Director of Overseas Operations in London.  He died of a heart attack four months after the operation and most believed Mossad had a hand inducing that heart attack.  His London born-and-raised son was ambitious and unwaveringly loyal to the mission that his father gave his life to.  His greatest honor would be to die for the same goals.  Ali was considered ideal to lead this operation. 

“Interesting that you’re crossing over right as America elects a new president,” interjected Javier after about two hours of silence.  “Don’t you want to find out who wins?”  The United States was electing a new President on this day.  One had promised to “take the fight to the terrorists” while the other favored “talking with those who disagree with us”. 

“No matter who wins, America is still a den of filthy unbelievers who stand against God,” replied Yusef. 

Clearly, Javier was also an unbeliever who realized that the conversation would not get any better.  Silence ensued for the next few hours until they came over a ridge and spotted the grey trailer at the end of a gravel road.   Javier turned back to the south and Mochtar gave a questioning look to Ali the Egyptian as if to say “why are we letting him go?”  However, Ali knew that Javier’s disappearance would ring alarm bells around MS-13, always sensitive to clients killing their employees. Given how riddled with informants MS-13 was, this might raise alarm at the FBI , CIA, or DEA.  No need for that drama and they would not be in the safe house long enough for it to make a difference. 

True to form, within 10 minutes of arriving at the safe house, the four of them were in an old Chevy Cavalier heading north to Phoenix.  They would spend the next three weeks at a nondescript Super 8 motel in Goodyear, a nondescript Phoenix suburb. 

Monday, November 24, 2008

After their time in Phoenix, it was about time to move to the staging areas.   

The three weeks were spent in seclusion – no phone calls, no e-mail, no reconnecting with family, no unnecessary interaction with the locals, nothing.   Ali the Egyptian knew the plan and made sure his three charges did as well.  Really, it was quite simple.  All three could figure out how to carry out their plot within five minutes.  They also discussed how to steal cars, but all were competent mechanically so there was not much to discuss there either.   At the safe house, they had picked up Illinois drivers licenses – the thinking was that anyone who actually checked the ID would be less likely to notice an irregularity in an out-of-state license.  They simply spent the three weeks together, prayed, and focused on the task at hand. The last things they did on Monday were expose themselves to the Sword of Allah and film a video on a handheld camcorder.

The Sword of Allah was smallpox, bought from North Korea.  It was carried to the United States and kept in a Phoenix in grouping of vials transported in an innocuous looking carrying case that resembled a laptop bag.  The fluid remained stable and viable as long as the temperatures did not reach extremes, which they had not.  Even crossing the Mexican / Arizonan desert, the vials had been taped to Ali the Egyptian’s chest.  Needless to say, pink test tube vials would not do well at airport security, so on Monday the fluid was moved to several 3oz bottles that looked like hand santizers.  Each one would have a full plastic bag to take to the airport tomorrow.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Yusef told the motel owner, “Phil” Singh, that they were leaving to go camping over the holiday weekend.  The weather around Phoenix was mild at this point, so it sounded reasonable.  “Phil” was born in India but emigrated with his family as a teenager. He had been a car salesman, but took over the family business three years ago when his parents died in a car accident. He went by Phil because his name “Ramani” was so badly mispronounced and made fun of in Middle School that he took the name Phil.  The nickname stuck.  His family was Hindu and had emigrated in 1984 because of the violence directed at his family by the Muslim majority in their native Kashmir.  He had always had a little extra wariness towards Muslim people based on that experience, but he had tried to keep it in perspective.  “These people are not those people”, he would often say to himself.  Phil thought they did not really look like the outdoorsy types.  For that matter they looked Middle Eastern even though the name on the registry was Mariel Sanchez (a.k.a. Yusef).  It was none of his business and after all they were paid through the following Monday.  Yusef asked one last thing.  They planned to return Sunday night, but if they were not back by Monday morning, Yusef asked that Phil call his cousin Rick and give him a package sitting out in the room. Rick would come and pick it up and the call was local.  Phil said that would not be a problem.  Yusef reasoned that “openness” about their plans to “go camping” would arouse less suspicion than the disappearance of four Middle Eastern looking- and sounding- guys (with Latino names), with the hope that the manager would simply discover and alert authorities to a camcorder.  None were aware of the details of the suicide bombing or stadium campaigns, but Ali the Egyptian knew theirs was part of a coordinated attack.  Without knowing of the parallel attack plan, Yusef’s logic persuaded Ali the Egyptian of the rightness of this course.

Phil did not notice that the four of them walked out of the motel with light backpacks – far too light for camping – but it would not have mattered as Phil was determined not to be suspicious of the first Middle Eastern appearing guests he had seen in many months.  They walked a couple blocks and took a bus to Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix. 

All four were going to start their Wednesdays in different cities in the Eastern Time zone. They started in the East and flew west because it provided more time to get to more places.  The other benefit of flying on Tuesday was that they had the chance to get the plan going early. Wednesday was the day to accomplish their goals – as it was the busiest travel day of the year – but those flying Tuesday would be given their chance to spread Allah’s Justice around the house of the Great Satan. 

First, they had to get past security…  “If the Great Satan is as soft as his airport security, America will be part of the Dar al Islam (the House of Islam) within five years, Inshallah,” Mochtar thought to himself as the four went their separate ways. 

Yusef booked all the tickets online. The only rule was that all four had to change planes at a major hub and have no less than a two-hour layover.  He also booked all flights as round trips just to avoid tripping any flags.  Ironically, it appeared that there was no coordination between airlines, so one could book a person on four trips the same day without tripping a flag.

Ali the Egyptian (“Miguel Andalusia” – a surname he requested) would fly American Airlines via Dallas to Charlotte.  Mochtar (“Chuey Portillo”) would fly Northwest Airlines via Minneapolis to Boston.  Mohammad (“Sergio Fernandez”) took United via Chicago to Detroit. Yusef (Mariel Sanchez) booked himself on Delta via Atlanta to Newark.  They were all booked to stay at airport motels and arrive at their respective airports by 4am.  The earliest flights out of most airports were at 6am, so the security lines would open at 4am.  

The plan was quite simple: fly from airport to airport.  Touch every surface possible and continue to “clean” their hands with the solution of smallpox throughout the day.  Moving walkways, sinks, faucets, water fountains, the hands of security and gate personnel, seats, kids’ play areas, door handles – every surface in the terminal and on the plane was a good surface. Tuesday flights were just a bonus.  The operatives were instructed to pour warm water into the empty containers, as they would be diluted but retain some effective nonetheless.  Lastly, the operatives themselves would be contagious but only appear to have a little winter cold by Wednesday. 

Dan Miley was flying with his wife and three kids on Tuesday afternoon from Minneapolis to Boston.  Sitting in the gate area, was a man who made him uncomfortable.  A Middle Eastern man with a stern appearance, he just gave him the creeps.  Dan did not want to be an Islamophobe but the man just gave off a distant stare and was rubbing the armrests on his chair in the strangest way. Just then, Dan’s son Max directed his toy car towards the man and it rolled right up to his foot.  Max trundled over to get the car. Just then, the stern man picked up the car that had hit his foot, handed it to Max with a big smile and sent him off with a friendly pat on the back of his neck.  Dan was ashamed for having been suspicious of this man.  The was probably just in his own zone after a long day of travel, but he was nicer to Max than Dan had been when Max crashed his little car into his foot.  “People are people for crying out loud,” Dan lectured himself silently.  Just then Northwest called their row, so he gathered up the kids and boarded the flight along with the smiling stern man.

Wednesday, November 26

The entire day went off without a hitch for all four. There was no drama.  There were no near misses.   Almost every major airport in America was given the rub down by four "Typhoid Marys" with intent – several of them twice.  Not since a sailor stepped off a boat in Italy with the Black Death nearly seven centuries ago would such horror be unleashed on a continent.

Ali the Egyptian flew from Charlotte to Philadelphia on US Airways, then via Chicago to Memphis on United, then via Houston to Los Angeles on Continental. He then boarded a red eye from Los Angeles to Atlanta on Delta. Yusef’s itinterary took him from Newark to Philadelphia on US Airways, then on via Cincinnati to Seattle on Delta.  He concluded his day by flying Alaska Airlines to Oakland and continuing down to San Diego on Southwest. Mochtar flew Delta from Boston via Atlanta to Orlando.  He then took Southwest stopping in Nashville and San Antonio en route to Las Vegas.  Lastly, Mohammad flew American from Detroit via Chicago to Milwaukee.  He then flew United via Denver to Honolulu.  He then boarded a red eye on Hawaiian Airlines to Los Angeles.  In two days, the four of them were able to work their magic 33 times in airports nationwide.  The overnight airports got it twice. They shared recirculated air with innocents above America.  Their paths crossed with countless families flying to countless destinations bringing the silent killer with them. 

Thursday, November 27

The last step was what to do upon landing.  They wanted to eliminate the paper trail to prevent others from possibly backtracking their plan in time to quarantine those exposed. Thus, each operative had four steps to close out the mission.   

1)   Evidence: Throw out all the spent mini-bottles in the airport.  The janitorial staffs will pick up the trash bags and discard the evidence rather quickly.  Boarding passes are to be discarded as each flight is completed.

2)   Identification: Discard and ideally destroy.  Ali the Egyptian instructed them to incinerate their IDs upon leaving the airport. Yusef thought that was a little showy and decided to bend and discard his drivers license in a can of soda (along with a napkin to keep it from rattling) on the final flight. 

3)   Steal a car: leave the airport and find a car that is not in a secure location. All four finished in airports surrounded by businesses, homes, and plenty of cars besides airport parking.

4)   Crash the car: when a stolen car driven by a thief with no ID is involved in a high speed head-on collision, the autopsy does not closely examine the body for signs of advancing stages of smallpox. Even if they do notice it, they cannot trace it back to the flights.

Saturday, November 29

Mike Jorgensen loved working at the largest hospital in Des Moines.  He loved the work, he loved where he and his wife were living, and he loved helping people.  Mike had grown up about 50 miles west of Sioux Falls, South Dakota in a two horse town.  Des Moines was such a nice city – big, but not too big in his eyes.  Mike was working at the ER on Saturday morning when a family visiting from Dallas came in.  A mother came in with two kids – seven and ten - it looked like chicken pox.  Mike diagnosed it as chicken pox, although the symptoms were a little unusual.  Mike took that to be a variant or a combination chicken pox/ flu.  Then the mother said, ”that’s odd.  I thought you could only get chicken pox once.”

“Excuse me?” replied Mike.

“Well, Joey and Sarah both had chicken pox about two years ago.”

Concern shot across Mike’s face. It was not shingles.  Yesterday’s attacks had everyone on edge.  While he did not want to jump to a conclusion, he knew he had to contact the CDC.   He told her to wait a moment and called the CDC hotline for physicians.

He was quickly forwarded to Director of the Center.  “You’re in Des Moines?”

“Yes, why?” asked Mike.  He did not want to hear why, because he was correctly afraid the answer would chill him.  

“Jesus. You’re the sixth person to call in this morning.  The first five were in the Northeast but you’re in the middle of the f&%#ing country.  Is the patient from Des Moines?” 

“Dallas.”

The silence hung until the director ultimately walked him through the quarantine procedures. He also clarified that he could not share the other cases.  He must explain to the family that they need to hold them some testing, but it could take a while.   In the meantime, they must be kept in a separate – along with him.

When Mike re-emerged to speak with the young mother and her kids after 15 minutes, he looked as if he had seen a ghost.   The family was smiling and joking as he opened the door, but they sensed immediately that this was not just a chicken pox relapse.

The Turkey Plot - Chapter 1

Friday, November 28, 2008

Black Friday.  The day when retailers go into the black.  The day when everything goes on sale and people start Christmas shopping in earnest.

The excitement was electric outside Nordstroms on Friday morning.  Mercifully, they had moved their grand opening back to 9am.  Stores had been opening earlier and earlier with specials, but besides getting publicity 5am openings were really just a pain for all involved – shoppers, salespeople, everyone.  Nordstroms got out in front advertising a month beforehand that they would have amazing prices on jewelry, accessories, clothes, and so forth – and that you did not need to get up four hours before sunrise to experience it.  To top it off, the first 1000 who entered the store would receive a $100 discount certificate on purchases of $250 or more.  It had been a slow sales year and Nordstroms was going big with their sale offer.  There must have been at least 1000 -1500 people ready to rush the doors on this side of the store (and there was another entrance as well), but Nordstroms had done everything to make it a carnival atmosphere. People passed through the crowd giving out free cups of Nordstroms Café coffee. 

Lisa Morgan was so excited she couldn’t stand it.  A middle school junior from Medford, she and her parents were staying with her aunt, uncle, and cousin in Tigard.  Together with her mom and aunt, here they were having the shopping trip she had been thinking about nonstop for the six weeks since her mother told her they would be going up to Portland for Thanksgiving.  One of the unique things about coming to the city from Medford is seeing weird people – from people with avant garde fashion sense to the homeless, Portland always had a variety of strange looking people.  She felt self-conscious for thinking of them as “weird”, but it always grabbed her attention. One man caught her eye this morning.  One, he was a man and about 90% of this crowd was not.  Two, he had on a very heavy winter coat but it was about 50 degrees out. “He must be burning up”, she said to her mother.  What was odd was that the coat had squares apparently filled with down, but the down was balled up in each square as if it was wet.  It was also a massive jacket – much too big for the man. It was not clear if he was obese, the jacket was oversized, or both.  She was staring – she realized it and stopped staring.  “So do we each get to spend $250?” she asked.  “My answer has not changed, honey, but we’ll get a few things,” her mom replied with the smile of a parent who wants to make “no” sound pleasant, or at least better than she had the previous afternoon.  “No prob, mom.  Just checking.”  “For a teenager, Lisa is about as good a daughter as you can hope for,” her mother thought to herself. It was 8:55 and Lisa could not wait to rush the doors.  She was about to burst with anticipation.  Just then, someone did burst.

Lisa was thrown into the back of the person in front of her and felt her aunt thrown onto her. Dazed and baffled, she felt a sharp pain in her shoulder and her neck was wet with the blood of a ruptured ear drum – not necessarily her own ear drum.  Smoke was all around them and she just reached for her mother.  Her mother hugged her tightly.  Then she heard the glass come down on them.  Nordstroms is a low, freestanding building in downtown Portland surrounded by towers of glass and steel.  Suddenly, it was raining glass from across the street – some pieces were heavy rain drop sized, but mostly they were jagged plates that were anywhere from a couple inches to a couple feet long.  They were floating to the ground, somersaulting and swinging side to side.  One of them sliced her right forearm pretty badly, but with her aunt on top of her and her mother hugging her, she was only exposed to the glass in a few places.  The sights and sounds were both muted and confused.  She heard screaming all around, but not from her aunt.  When the glass rain stopped, she turned around and realized why.  In shock, she turned for comfort to her mother, but one of those glass shards had gone straight through her mother’s neck.  Her mother had terror in her eyes and gave a final anguished look as she expired at her daughter’s side.  Wriggling out from under her aunt, Lisa realized her mother had rolled over to cover her after the impact.  Lisa was apoplectic.  She looked up and the massive throng was now covered in half a foot of glass.  The scene was horror beyond description – screaming, crying, but mostly bloody or motionless bodies.  The bomber had stood at the base of the building across the street.  By being away from the center of the crowd, the nails blew out further and the impact shattered more glass.  The pain in her shoulder was nail directly from the bomber.  Her scalp was also grazed by a screw, but she felt no pain as the scene around her rendered her numb. 

This horror was repeated around the nation – at the same time: noon in the East and 9am on the West Coast.   The details were different in every city, but the story was the same – a suicide bomber taking innocent life in a public setting: Hartford, Buffalo, New York City, Philadelphia, Williamsburg, Rock Hill, Houston, Tulsa, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, Orange County, and of course Portland.  Nobody was safe and there was next to no commonality to the attacks: large cities, small towns, four attacks in the Southwest but none in the Midwest, an upscale shopping mall in Philadelphia, a WalMart  in Tulsa, a Starbucks in Phoenix, a McDonalds in San Diego. Piecing things together in the days afterwards, it appeared that the targets of these attacks were not always designed to inflict maximum casualties. 

While the Nordstroms was the deadliest, the first one on national news was the taxicab in Times Square.  Nobody even knows if the cab had a passenger.  Apparently the trunk and back seats of the cab were completely packed with a fertilizer bomb not entirely unlike the one used in Oklahoma City back in 1995.  As the cab drove past the Virgin Records store on the east side of Times Square, the cab detonated.  While it tore the façade off the building and leveled the Broadway Show tickets booth, the explosion “only” killed 58.  Given the number of people in Times Square at the time and the energy released by the explosion, this was considered no less than a miracle.  Over 250 were injured, but many of them would have died had the cab been packed with metal projectiles that every other suicide bomb was.  The images of a leveled Times Square were immediately iconic both for those who mourned the dead and those who cheered the destruction.  In all, there were 13 suicide bombers who killed 751 innocents – nearly half of them in Portland. 

As a suicide bomber detonated in the checkout aisle at a Harris Teeter grocery store in Rock Hill, South Carolina, something far worse was about to unfold 26 miles to the north.  Many of college football’s best rivalry games take place on the Saturdays before and after Thanksgiving. Recognizing that football fans have the day off and still want their football on Friday, several of the lesser matchups moved their games up to Friday with the promise of national coverage on the ESPN network of channel.  At noon Eastern, ESPN2 featured the East Carolina – NC State game live from Charlotte’s.  Drawing from their strong local alumni bases and thanks to NC State’s unexpectedly strong season, the game in Bank of America Stadium – the home of the NFL’s Carolina Panthers – was a near sellout.  No less than 55,000 fans were in the stadium and maybe another 10,000 were loitering outside – tailgating, throwing a football around, and finishing their brats or chili before going into the stadium. With kickoff in about 10 minutes, most were inside the gate when it started.  A minivan packed with fire accelerators drove into the mass of spectators going into the South gate and blew up. The explosion rattled the stadium, but the fire – the people on fire – started the stampede into the stadium.  Two gunmen emerged from a van parked near the gate to spray the crowd with automatic rifle fire – the effect was to kill a quite a few people, but the larger effect was to force a rush into the stadium as people were trampled under foot.  The third and fourth team members emerged from another van to fire Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs) into the gate areas, again forcing people into the stadium and killing or wounding those in the back of the stampede.   A fifth and a sixth killer emerged from a third van with a mortar.  It began lobbing mortars into the stadium, exploding in the air.  The automatic rifle fire was redirected from the gate to the parking lot to secure the perimeter around the team of six.  This was repeated in the East Gate and the North Gate – forcing those in the gate areas deeper into the stadium while killing some of those in the lot.  Three teams of seven (counting the suicide van drivers) had killed hundreds while trapping a panicked stadium of about 60,000.  They were then firing at will, raining shrapnel on the survivors.  Prepared with enough mortars to fire continuously for an hour, the only question was when they would be stopped.  

The North Gate attack group almost immediately encountered some small arms fire from a nearby apartment building.  This new apartment building had just opened in September – upscale flats built downtown and ideal for the urban single lifestyle.  The building complex was nearly empty today as the primarily 20-something residents had mostly gone elsewhere over the long weekend or were out doing something by noon.  But Jacob Hamilton was home.  Jacob had just left the Army and was three months into his new job in corporate finance.  He was taking advantage of the long weekend to get ahead at work.  Just yesterday, he had driven to his parents’ place in Asheville for Thanksgiving and picked up his deer hunting rifle while he was there.  Back in his own new home, he was making headway on a project when all hell broke loose out his window.  He heard the first explosion and knew immediately what was going on. Although he had a clear line of sight to the group, he was not an elite rifleman by army standards and he was 500m away.  Nonetheless, within 30 seconds, he had downed two of the North Gate team members and forced the other four to take cover thanks to the fortuitous retrieval of his deer rifle.  They continued to fire mortars at infrequent intervals, but the assault rifle fire and RPG fire were stopped for the moment.  Through the scope, Jacob could not see the other team members but he kept the harassment fire coming in and watched for movement.   About 7 minutes later, he downed a third team member.  At the very least, he kept their lethal effectiveness down from the start.

The same could not be said of the other two groups, whose continuous fire on the crowds took a horrible toll.  All three gates were bloody messes of bodies – hundreds of innocents strewn all over the place, dismembered, more blood than anyone could imagine.  Fortunately, the fans who made it from their seats into the concourse were relatively safe. In the highlight of the day from the perspective of stopping the killing, Charlotte’s SWAT team was on the scene within ten minutes.  Countless lives were saved as the three assault teams were quickly taken out. Nonetheless, 1468 people died and nearly 10,000 were injured.  When the shooting stopped, many fans just stood in a daze, wandering around waiting to find out what to do.  Others – half expecting the shooting to reignite - could not get out of the lot fast enough.  Although fans were routed away from the three gates of concentrated carnage, there was more than enough to horrify them inside the stadium and most had to walk near the gates to get back to their cars.

Charlotte’s carnage paled next to that of New Brunswick, New Jersey.  The ESPN noon game featured Rutgers and Connecticut.  The stadium was smaller, but several factors contributed to making this attack by far the more lethal of the two.  Several people were getting phone calls saying "Can you believe what's going on?" or "get away from that crowd" or text messages like "go 2 a TV"... but then the explosions started.  Much like in Charlotte, the intent was to block a couple exits with incendiary bombs, increasing the panic and keeping the crowd herded into a tighter kill zone, but events exceeded the goals of the planners.  At one gate near the endzone, the fire caught and began sweeping into the stadium.  At another gate, the explosion damaged a pillar, causing a partial collapse several minutes later.  The panic that ensued killed an untold number of spectators.  The number is untold because the collapse victims, fire victims, and stampede victims were difficult to separate. This forced people towards the open end of the stadium, which is where the RPG and mortar fire was concentrated.   There were no reinforcements and there was no escape for the crowd, the cavalry did not come for over half an hour due to jurisdictional confusion and an initial focus of resources in the region on responding to the Times Square suicide bomber.  There were four teams of attackers instead of the three in Charlotte, so more firepower was put on fewer people for a longer amount of time and every exit was blocked.  When the assault teams ran out of rpgs and mortars – nearly 20 minutes into the killing, they simply walked into the stadium unopposed.  Armed with AK-74 assault weapons, they shot everyone they saw and did not run out of ammunition.  They walked into bathrooms packed with fans running for cover and threw grenades in the air, then walked through shooting those who survived.  On several occasions, they chose to behead victims who appeared to be alive.  When the police and SWAT teams did come, they took up positions at a distance outside the stadium and only slowly entered the stadium despite the sounds of explosions and gunfire ringing out all over the stadium. 36,383 fans walked into Rutgers Stadium, but only 8,636 survived. Most of those were in the press boxes & suites or survivors of the collapsed side of stadium who retained the ability to walk and escaped before fire swept across their section.   It was death on a level America had not seen since the Civil War.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

Before the worst came, there was one more violent attack to shatter the nerves of a horrified nation almost two days after the initial attack.  On Sunday at 4:46am in St. Louis, the residents of the Meadow Terrance Apartments woke to a deafening explosion that shook their building. Meadow Terrace is a lower middle income apartment block with 40 units and 133 residents about 9 miles north of downtown St Louis’ iconic arch in a fairly middle class area.  In the parking garage beneath the building, a pipe bomb planted next to a pillar was remotely detonated with enough force to wake slumbering neighbors 1 mile away.  The initial blast killed nobody, but the structure of the building immediately became unstable.  The unit directly above the blast was vacant, as the residents were visiting relatives in Chicago, but their living room was demolished and fell into where the garage had been. With the sounds of creaking and cracking, every resident in the building ran to get out before the building started to come down.  Additionally, several neighbors had flashlights and ran out to the building to see if they could help.  No need.  Within 10 minutes, everyone was out front, at which time the police and ambulance arrived on the scene.  It looked like everyone in this bleary eyed suburb had dodged a bullet when police lieutenant Darryl Williams noticed a red light blinking inside the nearly opaque tinted windows of an early 90’s model Mazda with aftermarket ground effects and a spoiler.  He began to yell for everyone to get away from the building, but it was too late.   In an explosion many times as powerful as the first, the car bomb sent out a shock wave peppered with ball bearings. The assembled group of people between the car and the apartment building – 108 residents , 7 police/ambulance personnel, and 15 neighbors – did not have a chance.  Many were standing within 10 yards of the car.  The explosion shattered windows three blocks away.  The projectiles critically injured a man looking out his window almost 100 yards away - a ball bearing severed his jugular artery.  In all 72 people were killed and another 82 injured by the second bomb, but any lingering hope that after Friday’s devastating attack would give the people of America another long pause like the one after 9/11 was shattered.

Incredibly, the worst was yet to come and it could no longer be stopped.